The Premier League's Home Comforts are Fading Fast!
The concept of a 'fortress' stadium is under threat. Once a formidable advantage, home turf is now less of a guarantee for victory. In the past two weeks, a mere 19% of Premier League games resulted in home wins, with only three teams managing to secure those precious home points.
This season, the likes of Spurs and Chelsea are among several clubs struggling on their own patch. Spurs' recent 4-1 defeat to Arsenal was a stark example, and they've only managed two home wins so far. Chelsea, meanwhile, dropped points at home to Burnley, making it eight out of 14 home games where they've failed to secure a win.
The 42% overall home win rate this season is the fifth-lowest in Premier League history. But this trend isn't new. Since the Football League's inception in 1888, home advantage has been on a steady decline. The graphic below reveals a clear pattern: from a high of 65% in 1895, home wins have dropped to just 42% this season.
But here's where it gets interesting:
The rate of draws has also decreased over time, while away wins have been on the rise. In the 2020/21 season, played without fans due to COVID, away teams won more games (40%) than home teams (38%) for the first time ever.
So, what's causing this shift? Modern conveniences like improved travel and sports science have certainly helped away teams. UEFA's standardized pitch sizes and playing surfaces have reduced the 'home field advantage' by making away games less unfamiliar.
And this is the part most fans wonder about:
Do fans still play a significant role? The 2020/21 season suggests they do. But with supporter unrest on the rise, could this be affecting home team performances? Or are poor results causing the unrest, rather than the other way around?
The Premier League's 'new kids on the block' - Everton, Spurs, and West Ham - are all adapting to new or relatively new grounds. This could indicate that familiarity still matters for home teams, even in the modern game.
What do you think is the primary reason for the decline of home advantage? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
